In recent years, industrial robots have almost become the "universal solution" for manufacturing upgrades. From Industry 4.0 to smart manufacturing, from automotive plants to new energy production lines, nearly all narratives about efficiency and cost reduction ultimately revolve around the four words: "robot penetration rate."

But in the capital markets, the winds are shifting subtly.

As the technological roadmaps of whole-plant manufacturers are repeatedly debated and valuation models constantly revised, another long-standing yet less visible player in the industrial chain—the robot system integrator—is stepping into the spotlight. Shanghai Junxun's submission of its IPO application to the Hong Kong Exchange is the latest testament to this shift.

This is not merely an IPO story. Notably, after the high automation of new energy and automotive manufacturing, robots themselves are gradually being "demystified," while the true determinants of production stability, cost efficiency, and yield lie in system-level integration capabilities.

The question is: Is this layer of capability a scarce asset or an overvalued engineering experience? As system integrators begin to be priced by capital, the industry's contradictions and ceilings are also being exposed.

From "robot dividends" to "system anxiety," manufacturing is redefining its value center

Looking back at the past decade of automation advancement in manufacturing, one clear trend emerges: The issue is no longer whether robots are present, but how they are used.

The global market for robot automation system integration grew from approximately 120.7 billion yuan in 2019 to 223.9 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 13%. This growth stems not only from new factories but more from the renovation, upgrading, and restructuring of existing production lines.

The logic is straightforward. As manufacturing processes lengthen and product iteration accelerates, efficiency gains from single equipment can no longer linearly translate into overall production capacity.

In automotive and new energy plants, the first to be automated are single workstations and highly standardized processes. But as automation extends to mid- and late-stage processes—especially multi-workstation parallel operations and highly coupled workflows—complexity rises exponentially.

Here, the robot itself ceases to be the core variable. The real challenges shift to cycle time matching, data coordination, anomaly handling, and scalability. This is also where system integrators begin to demonstrate their value.

From the client's perspective, this change is particularly tangible. The goal of introducing automation has evolved from early "replacing labor and cutting costs" to "controlling uncertainty."

Questions like production stability, predictable yields, and replicable future expansions cannot be fully answered by single equipment vendors—only system integrators can address them at the architectural level.

Shanghai Junxun occupies this "revalued" middle ground. It doesn’t produce robots but must understand the boundaries of different robot brands, sensors, and control systems in real-world processes. It doesn’t directly face end consumers but is deeply embedded in clients' production logic. In a sense, system integrators undertake the "organizational work" of manufacturing systems, not just engineering delivery.

Yet this is precisely where controversy begins.

Traditionally, capital markets have viewed system integration as "non-standard engineering," heavily reliant on project experience and human organization, with inherent limitations in scalability and margins. Even with revenue growth, valuations often remain confined to the service-company range.

This explains why, when system integrators began filing en masse, the market's first reaction was caution, not optimism: Is this value discovery or a cyclical peak phenomenon?

The "engineering trap" of new energy battery PACK is reshaping integrators' growth and risks

If the system integration industry's past growth came largely from mature scenarios like automotive welding, then the recent surge in the industry curve has been driven by new energy battery module and PACK automation lines.

The global market for new energy battery module and PACK automation solutions grew from about 7.1 billion yuan in 2019 to 23.29 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR nearing 27%, significantly outpacing overall automation. This boom stems from rapid NEV sales growth and ongoing battery technology diversification.

In modules and PACK, process complexity far exceeds front-end electrode manufacturing. High energy density and integration trends demand escalating assembly precision, safety redundancy, and testing. Emerging technologies like solid-state and large cylindrical batteries further force frequent line modifications or even complete rebuilds.

This has brought system integrators a flood of new orders and short-term improvements in revenue structure and profitability.

Shanghai Junxun's recent synchronized growth in revenue and profits reflects this cycle. Its new energy battery module and PACK business has become a key revenue source, while niche scenarios like battery tray welding contribute incremental growth in automotive.

But the problem is that this growth model itself carries instability.

On one hand, PACK lines are highly customized, with long project cycles and complex deliveries, demanding extreme human and management resources. On the other, downstream clients' capital expenditures are cyclical—once the industry enters adjustment, order volatility quickly propagates to integrators.

More critically, as China becomes the global hub for power battery manufacturing and process iteration, system integrators are accelerating "overseas expansion." While this seemingly opens larger markets, it introduces new variables: stark regional differences in safety regulations, certification systems, and delivery standards significantly elevate project risks compared to domestic markets.

In other words, new energy PACK brings not unilateral profits but a comprehensive test of system integration capabilities, organizational strength, and risk control.

This is also the most easily overlooked point in system integrators' IPO narratives.

Capital markets often focus more on revenue growth curves while underestimating the structural pressures engineering firms face during expansion. As project scales expand, geographies extend, and technology diversifies, whether past reliance on experience and human efficiency can sustain margins and delivery stability remains unproven.

From this angle, Shanghai Junxun's IPO resembles a stress test arriving ahead of schedule.

It symbolizes system integrators' rising position in the industrial chain while exposing the inherent contradictions of this model in standardization, scalability, and cyclical resilience.

When robots are no longer scarce, what manufacturing truly competes for is no longer just automation levels, but who can "stabilize" systems amid complex, uncertain industrial realities.

Whether capital markets are willing to pay long-term premiums for this capability remains an open question.